{
  "updated": "2026-11-09T12:25:43Z",
  "companies": [
    {
      "id": "openai",
      "name": "OpenAI",
      "venues": [
        {
          "headline": "45.5% by Jun 30, 2027",
          "lines": [
            "Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?",
            "1.6% by Dec 31, 2026"
          ],
          "href": "https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by",
          "name": "Polymarket"
        },
        {
          "headline": "48.0% before Jun 1, 2027",
          "lines": [
            "Chance the company has officially announced an IPO before that date.",
            "Before Jun 1, 2027",
            "1.5% before Jan 1, 2027"
          ],
          "href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipoopenai",
          "name": "Kalshi"
        },
        {
          "name": "Manifold",
          "headline": "June 2027 or later",
          "lines": [
            "When will OpenAI hold its IPO?",
            "57.0% of the probability sits on June 2027 or later."
          ],
          "href": "https://manifold.markets/JimD/when-will-openai-hold-its-ipo"
        },
        {
          "name": "Metaculus",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No open question asking when this company IPOs."
          ],
          "href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=OpenAI%20IPO"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic",
      "name": "Anthropic",
      "venues": [
        {
          "headline": "68.0% by Nov 20, 2026",
          "lines": [
            "Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?",
            "87.2% by Dec 31, 2026"
          ],
          "href": "https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-by",
          "name": "Polymarket"
        },
        {
          "headline": "76.5% before Dec 1, 2026",
          "lines": [
            "Chance the company has officially announced an IPO before that date.",
            "Before Dec 1, 2026",
            "88.5% before Jan 1, 2027"
          ],
          "href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipoanthropic",
          "name": "Kalshi"
        },
        {
          "name": "Manifold",
          "headline": "2026 Q4",
          "lines": [
            "When will Anthropic IPO?",
            "86.5% of the probability sits on 2026 Q4."
          ],
          "href": "https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/when-will-anthropic-ipo"
        },
        {
          "name": "Metaculus",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No open question asking when this company IPOs."
          ],
          "href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=Anthropic%20IPO"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "xai",
      "name": "xAI",
      "venues": [
        {
          "name": "Polymarket",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No Polymarket event titled as this company's IPO."
          ],
          "href": "https://polymarket.com"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kalshi",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No open series for an announced IPO."
          ],
          "href": "https://kalshi.com"
        },
        {
          "name": "Manifold",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No standalone IPO market."
          ],
          "href": "https://manifold.markets/search?s=xAI%20IPO"
        },
        {
          "name": "Metaculus",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No open question asking when this company IPOs."
          ],
          "href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=xAI%20IPO"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "databricks",
      "name": "Databricks",
      "venues": [
        {
          "name": "Polymarket",
          "headline": "No clean price",
          "lines": [
            "Will Databricks not IPO by December 31, 2027?",
            "The buckets on this event sum to 2.96, so the printed yes-price is not a usable probability."
          ],
          "href": "https://polymarket.com/event/databricks-ipo-closing-market-cap-20260630152322605"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kalshi",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No open series for an announced IPO."
          ],
          "href": "https://kalshi.com"
        },
        {
          "name": "Manifold",
          "headline": "60.5%",
          "lines": [
            "Will Databricks IPO before 2028?"
          ],
          "href": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-databricks-ipo-before-2028"
        },
        {
          "name": "Metaculus",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No open question asking when this company IPOs."
          ],
          "href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=Databricks%20IPO"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "perplexity",
      "name": "Perplexity",
      "venues": [
        {
          "name": "Polymarket",
          "headline": "54.5% by Dec 31, 2027",
          "lines": [
            "Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?",
            "Taken from the complement of that bucket. The event's buckets sum to about 1."
          ],
          "href": "https://polymarket.com/event/perplexity-ipo-closing-market-cap"
        },
        {
          "headline": "58.0% before Jan 1, 2029",
          "lines": [
            "Chance the company has officially announced an IPO before that date.",
            "Before Jan 1, 2029"
          ],
          "href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipoperplexity",
          "name": "Kalshi"
        },
        {
          "name": "Manifold",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No standalone IPO market."
          ],
          "href": "https://manifold.markets/search?s=Perplexity%20IPO"
        },
        {
          "name": "Metaculus",
          "headline": "No open market",
          "lines": [
            "No open question asking when this company IPOs."
          ],
          "href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=Perplexity%20IPO"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "metaculus_errors": [
    "HTTP Error 403: Forbidden",
    "HTTP Error 403: Forbidden",
    "HTTP Error 403: Forbidden",
    "HTTP Error 403: Forbidden"
  ]
}